15 Aug · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jonas Kulveit
ELO 1412
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1467
FormWWWLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kulveit🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 75% (53)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H7-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.