15 Aug · 12:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1448
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skvor
OS
🇨🇿Ondrej Skvor
ELO 1472
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki🌟Skvor rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (32)
Fair odds · Skvor
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.