15 Aug · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1448
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jokiel
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1461
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 62% (50)
Fair odds · Jokiel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H10-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.