15 Aug · 15:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1560
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Knazik
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1532
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vodal🌟Vodal covers set handicap as underdog 75% (63)
Fair odds · Knazik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H53-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.