15 Aug · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1527
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Knazik
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1560
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dohnal🌟Knazik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (106)
Fair odds · Knazik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H34-66
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.