15 Aug · 14:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1650
FormLWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Skvrna
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1569
FormWLLLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gembala🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (119)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H29-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-23)