15 Aug · 14:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pokorny
ELO 1544
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pokorny
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1543
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Pokorny
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.