15 Aug · 21:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1662
FormWLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Rek
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1589
FormWLLLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Rek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)