15 Aug · 23:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1589
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1619
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H19-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.