15 Aug · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Volny
ELO 1444
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Raska
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1481
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Volny🌟Volny covers set handicap as underdog 70% (30)
Fair odds · Raska
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.