15 Aug · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1481
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Molin
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1532
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Raska🌟Raska covers set handicap as underdog 66% (62)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H8-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.