15 Aug · 17:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1469
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sochor
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1486
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Sochor rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (42)
Fair odds · Sochor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H15-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.