15 Aug · 21:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1552
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1573
FormWLLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vitasek🌟Vitasek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (63)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H21-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.