15 Aug · 17:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1431
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1452
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobota🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (60)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.