15 Aug · 21:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1504
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1573
FormWLLLW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Krupnik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (67)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H25-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-19)