15 Aug · 21:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Marek Kulisek
ELO 1539
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Benes
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1589
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H29-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.