15 Aug · 22:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1532
FormWLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Molin
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Volny
ELO 1444
FormWLLWW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Volny🌟Volny covers set handicap as underdog 70% (30)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+88
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)