16 Aug · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1551
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fitl
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1520
FormLLLWW
53%
47%
🌟Neterda covers set handicap as underdog 64% (22)
Fair odds · Fitl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H2-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.