16 Aug · 09:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1457
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Chlad
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1458
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlad🌟Chlad rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (35)
Fair odds · Chlad
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.