16 Aug · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1542
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1580
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vitasek🌟Vitasek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (64)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H22-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.