16 Aug · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1536
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gembala
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1553
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cizek🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (68)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.