16 Aug · 14:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JH
🇨🇿Jakub Horky
ELO 1460
FormWWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Horky
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1349
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
⚡ Cover lean · Horky
Fair odds · Horky
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+111
H2H9-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+111)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-6)