16 Aug · 11:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1576
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mrowetz
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1536
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cizek🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (62)
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H12-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.