16 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1457
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Ogrocki
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1453
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jemelka🌟Jemelka covers set handicap as underdog 62% (24)
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.