16 Aug · 08:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1458
FormWWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Chlad
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1453
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jemelka🌟Chlad rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (35)
Fair odds · Chlad
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.