16 Aug · 08:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1551
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Fitl
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jnr
ELO 1491
FormWWLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Fitl
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)