16 Aug · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cesak
ELO 1580
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Cesak
RZ
🇨🇿Radek Zeman
ELO 1527
FormWWLWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zeman🌟Cesak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (54)
Fair odds · Cesak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H21-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.