16 Aug · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1629
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kocab
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1659
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
🌟Cerny stays under total as underdog 62% (88)
Fair odds · Kocab
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H4-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.