16 Aug · 19:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1488
FormLLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sochor
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1490
FormWWLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sochor🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 74% (68)
Fair odds · Sochor
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 29% · 3.43· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.