16 Aug · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1559
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1618
FormLWWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.63· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H103-76
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (103-76)