17 Aug · 07:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1501
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Strelec
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1485
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jancak🌟Jancak covers set handicap as underdog 70% (50)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.