17 Aug · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1520
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mandrysz
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1485
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🌟Jancak covers set handicap as underdog 70% (50)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H12-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.