17 Aug · 08:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1507
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1520
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Sevecek covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.