17 Aug · 08:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1501
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1520
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
🌟Strelec covers set handicap as underdog 69% (29)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.