17 Aug · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1501
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sevecek
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1507
FormWLWWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sevecek🌟Sevecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (22)
Fair odds · Sevecek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~72 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.