17 Aug · 11:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1523
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1569
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (67)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H18-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.