17 Aug · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1555
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Branny
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1516
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Lasota covers set handicap as underdog 73% (26)
Fair odds · Branny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.