17 Aug · 13:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1548
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pawlik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1595
FormLLLWW
46%
54%
🌟Dzida covers set handicap as underdog 64% (22)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.