17 Aug · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1569
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rek
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1602
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 70% (118)
Fair odds · Rek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H36-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.