17 Aug · 13:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1558
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Holub
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1593
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
🌟Holub stays under total as favourite 70% (20)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.