17 Aug · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1637
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lysakowski
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1528
FormWLLLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 65% · 1.53· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+109
H2H62-38
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+109)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (62-38)