17 Aug · 17:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1523
FormLLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1582
FormWWWWL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hendrych🌟Hendrych covers set handicap as underdog 69% (75)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H13-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-11)