17 Aug · 17:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1612
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sarganek
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vicherek
ELO 1606
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Vicherek covers set handicap as underdog 73% (49)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H28-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.