17 Aug · 15:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1698
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Niezgoda
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1612
FormLLLLL
57%
43%
🌟Sarganek stays under total as underdog 65% (57)
Fair odds · Niezgoda
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H49-38
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (49-38)