17 Aug · 16:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1468
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Melichar
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1553
FormLLWWW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Melichar rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (23)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)