17 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hrncir
ELO 1510
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hrncir
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1480
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Hrncir rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (34)
Fair odds · Hrncir
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.