17 Aug · 17:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1603
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mastera
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1596
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mastera
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H7-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.