17 Aug · 16:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1603
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mastera
JM
🇨🇿Jan Muska
ELO 1566
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Muska covers set handicap as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Mastera
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H9-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.