17 Aug · 17:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jan Muska
ELO 1566
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Karel
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1646
FormLWLWL
43%
57%
🌟Muska covers set handicap as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Karel
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+80
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)