17 Aug · 21:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1500
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kabelka
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cvecek
ELO 1500
50%
50%
🌟Kabelka goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Kabelka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+0
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.